由彼得·希夫們的賴賬說開去

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美國人要賴賬了（或者說根本就沒有過還的打算），原以為只有市井流氓才用的無賴手段，美國人卻把它用到了國際政治交往中。美國人的賬賴得如此輕松寫意，臉不紅心不跳，可見其臉皮之厚。賴賬本不是什么光榮的事，賴就賴吧，完全可以低調(diào)點(diǎn)，一張欠條打個(gè)千年萬年也就算了，而中國買辦精英捏張白條也好繼續(xù)糊弄國人，彼得·希夫你又何必把紙捅破，讓人難堪呢？可見對彼得·希夫們來說，養(yǎng)的這些中國狗除了滿身騷味的狗肉尚可食用外，已沒多少利用價(jià)值了。中國百姓的情緒也完全沒有照顧的必要，因?yàn)樵谒麄冄劾�，中國百姓和戴著腳鐐手銬，在狗腿子的皮鞭驅(qū)使下勞作的奴隸已沒什么區(qū)別。此情此景，不由讓人想到三四十年代掛在上海租界黃浦公園門口的一塊醒目的標(biāo)牌：“華人與狗不得入內(nèi)”，痛心不已。

當(dāng)初日本發(fā)動(dòng)了長達(dá)八年的一場侵華戰(zhàn)爭，從中國攫取的財(cái)富也就是上千億美元，現(xiàn)在美國政府不費(fèi)一槍一彈，就從中國攫取上萬億美元資產(chǎn)。公然賴掉中國8千億美元美國國債，無論是財(cái)產(chǎn)上的損失，還是精神層面上的傷害，都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了美國轟炸中國南斯拉夫大使館，只是手段使得更隱蔽一些。更令人痛心的是國人的麻木，國內(nèi)主流媒體對此視而不見，主流精英揚(yáng)言還要繼續(xù)購買美國國債，思想最為活躍的高校陣地更是超乎尋常的寂靜，寂靜得可怕。最近所發(fā)生的一切大事，諸如美國等西方勢力支持下的藏獨(dú)、疆獨(dú)、臺獨(dú)、南海爭端、釣魚島、南海領(lǐng)土爭端、國慶禁賣菜刀以及中國成為轉(zhuǎn)基因?qū)嶒?yàn)場等等無不預(yù)示著中國還將沿著1840以來的道路再走一次。不同的是，這次美元代替了鴉片，轉(zhuǎn)基因糧食代替了生化武器；相同的是國人依舊麻木，政府依舊軟弱。“洋務(wù)運(yùn)動(dòng)”和“改革開放”其實(shí)本屬同一事物，只是換了說法，如不汲取教訓(xùn)，也必定會殊途同歸。究其根本，并不是主流精英所說的那樣“中國缺少開放”，而洽洽是缺少對開放過程中出現(xiàn)的種種問題的反思與重視，特別是片面追求經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展而忽略民生保障、忽略社會公平，正如聯(lián)合國《1996 年人類發(fā)展報(bào)告》曾指出的五種有增長而無發(fā)展的情況，即：無工作的增長(jobless growth) ,指經(jīng)濟(jì)增長未能提供足夠多的就業(yè)機(jī)會，甚至惡化了就業(yè)形勢；無聲的增長(voiceless growth) ，指經(jīng)濟(jì)增長未能擴(kuò)大公眾參與和管理公共事務(wù)，未能擴(kuò)大自由表達(dá)自己的意見和觀點(diǎn)的可能性；無情的增長(ruthless growth) ，指經(jīng)濟(jì)增長導(dǎo)致了收入分配不平等格局的惡化，財(cái)富的擴(kuò)大甚至帶來了新的貧困階級；無根的增長(rootless growth) ，指經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對文化多樣性造成的破壞，導(dǎo)致本土文化的危機(jī)以及民族沖突的發(fā)生；無未來的增長(futureless growth) ，指經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對生態(tài)、資源和環(huán)境造成的破壞，影響了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的可持續(xù)性。除第一種有待考究外（產(chǎn)業(yè)工人、農(nóng)民工長期維持在最低生活限度的就業(yè)與其說是就業(yè)還不如說是奴役、壓榨），其余四種一一對號入座，而國內(nèi)卻是太平盛世般的沾沾自喜，長此以往必將導(dǎo)致改革的成果損失殆盡，社會危機(jī)也將接踵而至。 

附錄：美國歐洲太平洋資本有限公司總裁彼得．希夫（Peter Schiff，president of Euro Pacific Capital）2009年7月12日在米塞斯研究院的演講《為什么我們不應(yīng)對金融危機(jī)感到意外》（Why the Meltdown Should Have Surprised No One）摘要

原文見）
錄像見
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——你知道，昨天中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人公開表示對借給我們的錢“有些”擔(dān)憂【臺下大笑】，說“有可能”我們還不了。我想他們不只是“有些”擔(dān)憂，這只是公開說法，想象一下他們私下會怎么看？他們一定知道我們不會還這筆錢，不可能給中國人還這筆錢，這是絕對不可能的。
Because the Chinese just mentioned yesterday that they were getting a little concerned about all the money they loaned us and that just maybe we won't pay them back. I'm sure they're a lot more than just a little concerned, because that's what they said publicly. Imagine what they're saying privately.
Because they know we're not going to pay them back. Of course we're not going to pay the Chinese back their money. It's impossible. We can't. We can't possibly.
——想象一下，某天總統(tǒng)奧巴馬，對著數(shù)萬億美國民眾，發(fā)表一次公開的電視演說。他這樣說道：
“親愛的美國同胞們，今天非常不幸地，我給你們帶來了一個(gè)壞消息。政府決定對美國普通民眾大幅加稅；那些仍然沒有失業(yè)的人，將為此支付更高的個(gè)人所得稅；政府將全面削減社會福利，仍然沒有實(shí)施的各種福利措施將徹底取消；我原先制定的所有計(jì)劃，包括全民教育、醫(yī)療保障、自主能源，所有這些計(jì)劃將被無限期擱置。因?yàn)橹袊�人要我們還錢！【臺下長時(shí)間狂笑】我們借的實(shí)在是太多了，全世界婦孺皆知【臺下笑】。欠債還錢，天經(jīng)地義。所以我們必須勒緊褲腰帶給中國人還錢！【臺下大笑】”
Can you imagine? Can you imagine if President Obama, giving the following type of speech to the American citizens.
He'll give a national televised address and say, "My fellow Americans, I've got a little news for you today. We're going to have to have a massive, across-the-board tax increase on average working Americans. Any American that still has a job is going to have to pay much higher income taxes.
"And, as a matter of fact, we're going to have to cut Social Security across the board. Forget the Social Security check, we're going to have to reduce it. And remember all my plans about more education and health care for everybody and energy independence, we got to put all those plans on hold, because the Chinese need their money.
"We borrowed a lot of money from the Chinese and we're good for our debts. They worked hard for that money and they loaned it us to and we're going to pay it back. And that's going to require a big sacrifice on our part."
——大家認(rèn)為這樣的事可能發(fā)生嗎？別開玩笑了。
我們更應(yīng)該對中國人說：“你們是食利者！放高利貸者！我們需要修改游戲規(guī)則【笑】，我們要打破債務(wù)枷鎖！你們明知我們還不了，還借給我們那么多錢！【臺下大笑】這不是我們的錯(cuò)！”
Does anyone think that we're going to do that? What are they, kidding me?
Do you know what we're going to tell the Chinese? We're going to say, "You guys are predators, predator lenders. We need a modification program. We need a cramdown on this. You never should have lent us all this money. You know we can't pay it back. It's not our fault."
——中國人自己很清楚，他們無法參與我們的政治選舉，我們?yōu)槭裁催�要在意中國人怎么想？華盛頓難道會得罪選民，去取悅非選民？
The Chinese know this. The Chinese, they can't even vote in our elections. Why are we going to care what they think? We're going to tax voters to pay non-voters?
——中國人很清楚，我們不可能還他們錢，這和伯尼?麥道夫的騙局是同一個(gè)道理。別人借我們錢，我們是怎么還的？——再去借新債。
So the Chinese know they're in this box. The US government, we don't pay our bills. We're like Bernie Madoff. People loan us money. How do we pay it back? We borrow more.
——麥道夫早期的客戶確實(shí)能把錢要回來，為什么？因?yàn)辂湹婪蛉匀辉谖�收新錢，騙那些還不知道這是龐氏騙局的人入會。財(cái)政部也在做同樣的事情，國債到期了怎么辦？——再把它賣給其他人。需要支付利息怎么辦？——照借不誤。如果有一天誰也不愿再買我們的國債了，那就只能違約，和麥道夫一樣。違約只有兩條途徑，要么直接宣布不還，要么印錢。這就是這些債務(wù)唯一可能的結(jié)局，反正它們不可能被償還。中國人當(dāng)然知道這一切，我們很快就會明白。
If somebody came to Bernie Madoff a couple years ago and wanted their money, they got it. Why did they get it? Because they were able to take in new money. They found another sucker who didn't know it was a Ponzi scheme.
Same thing the US government does. Every time a bond matures, we just go sell another one. And every time we need to pay interest on the national debt, we go borrow that too. Well, it works until nobody wants to lend us any more money, then we're going to have to default, just like Bernie did.
And there's only two ways we can default. We just legitimately don't pay, or we print money. That's it. There's only two ways to repudiate your debt. There's no way we're going to pay the debt; the Chinese have to know that, and we're going to figure that out.
——在我看來，與其把麥道夫投進(jìn)監(jiān)獄，我們不如任命他為財(cái)政部部長【臺下聽眾狂笑】，因?yàn)樗�的�?jīng)驗(yàn)是我們最最需要的——那就是玩“龐氏騙局”的經(jīng)驗(yàn)�！九_下大笑】
And, of course, I said, instead of putting Bernie Madoff in jail, we should just make him Secretary of the Treasury. Because he's got a lot of experience, exactly the kind that we need, running a Ponzi scheme.

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